Scene 1

Modelling COVID-19 pandemic using Mathematics

1 Zulkifli  Mohd   Nopiah  (PhD)  2 Ramizi Bin Mohamed (PhD) 3 Raja  Affendi  Raja Ali ( M.Med.Sc ) 12 Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, 3 Faculty of Medicine, UNIVERSITI KEBANGSAAN MALAYSIA.

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The COVID-19 pandemic can be modeled by using simple  S-I-R  or  S-E-I-R model . The letters stand for Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed.  Literatures can be found in many studies. The model developed was based on S-E-I-R  compartmental  model from Q. Lin et. al. 2020 and He et. al. 2013.   The developed model used THREE control parameters, earlier known as  Government Control Strategy, Early Detection Strategy and Public Response .

Scene 3

S  – the number of  susceptible  individuals not yet infected with the disease. E  – is the compartment of population who have been  exposed  to the disease I  – denotes the individuals who have been  infected  with the disease. R   – is the compartment used for those have been infected and the  removed  from the disease.  This can be for those who have immunization ,  recovered   or due to  death .

Keyword :  Compartmental Meaning : Characterized by division into separate sections.

Scene 4

Once the infected person gets into the healthy compartment, people start to get exposed. Where  Β (t)/N  is the strength factor

Scene 5

The susceptible compartment is vulnerable and reducing number at rate

Expose within short period of time before totally infected,  the exposed person now becomes infected person.

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Infected persons gradually increase, hence infectivity rate increases.

Scene 7

Scene 8

The plot of SEIR  and SIR are almost the same

Scene 9

Scene 10

S-E-I-R Model  –  another representation

Susceptible
Exposed
Infectious
Removed
Recovered
Deaths

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R 0  =  represents the Reproduction Number. It is the number of cases, one case generates on average over the course of their infectious period, is a key measure of transmissibility and can be estimated in a number of ways from the data currently available (Fraser et al., 2009). Higher number of  R 0  would indicate that the outbreak could growth exponentially, and if the number falls down less than ONE (1) it has an indication that the disease can be controlled and eventually died out.

Scene 12

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The  behaviour  of the outbreak is similar to China’s experience since December 2019.   The strategy is to fit the  model with non-linear least square technique to the actual data from China, and use the parameter for Malaysian Covid-19 outbreak. The model does not consider for any emigration rate or even  zoonatic  cases.

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The estimation of the curve projection is based on current infected numbers.   The  objective  of the projection is to estimate the possible number of active cases and reproduction number R 0  (ref: WHO-China joint mission). We introduced step function,  β(t),  that consist of early transmission rate and control measure parameters to estimate for the next projection curve.  The step function is needed for future curve projection for any changes based on the current and previous number of active cases at any particular time (dates).

Note: R 0  represents the average number of people to which a single             infected person will transmit the virus

Scene 15

Scene 16

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Forecast Results: Early Estimation at 22 Mar 2020

New  β(t) is introduced for overall possible projection at 22 Mar 2020  with estimated R 0 =2.23. The expected R 0  < 1 is estimated to be in the early April to mid April 2020, which in agreement to Malaysian government MCO1 and MCO2.

PKP =  Perintah   Kawalan   Pergerakan   MCO = Movement Control Order

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Forecast Results: New Projection at 26 Mar 2020

New  β(t) is introduced at 22 Mar 2020 , The estimated R 0  is 2.37

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Forecast Results: New Projection at 5 Apr 2020

New  β(t) is introduced at 5th Apr 2020 , The estimated R 0  is 1.12.  ( We are not there yet!!! )

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Update on current projection estimation, 9th April 2020
(The number represents the actual active cases NOT accumulated cases)
Projection as at 5 Apr 2020
UINIvERs111
K LIANGSAAN
MALAYSIA
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
4
3
2
1
o
5 th
6th 7th 8th 9th
Data collected and estimated since
18th Apr 2020
The projection at 5th Apr 2020 remained
intact, the current actual cases follow
closely to the estimated projection from
6th - 9th of April 2020
"—Actual Cases
Estimated Projection
Estimated Reproduction Number (5 Apr 2020)
Estimated Ro at 5th Apr
2020 = 1.12
Notel: The estimated Ro is simply
a threshold value, not the average
number of secondary infections
•••••ActuaI Estimated
Projected Ro
Estimated Ro at 9th Apr 2020
= 1.03
Estimated Ro at 14th Apr 2020
= 0.92
Note2: Ro represents the average number of people to which a single
infected person will transmit the virus

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Estimation on daily new cases and comparison UKM with MIER
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
UKM projection from 15 Feb 2020
until 15 April 2020
MIER projection from 23 Mar 2020
until 9 April 2020
435
MIER's peak
margin at 4th
Apr 2020:
-285
150
Both UKM and MIER show reduction on the
number of newly infected cases perday.
However UKM showed earlier reduction on
29th Mar 2020. The comparison is to show both
projection are in agreement to each other
272
UW's peak
margin at 29th
Mar 2020:
-122
150
KIT,ANCSAA
MALAYSIA
National Univers,
352
MIER: 9th Apr 2020.
224
109
UKM: 9th Apr 2020.
Ma •n=115
UKM
MIER
Actual

Scene 22

Update on current projection estimation, 14th April 2020
(The number represents the actual active cases NOT accumulated cases)
Estimated New Projection at 14 Apr 2020
K CBAN(ZSAAN
MALAYSIA
iversiry
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
4
3
2
1
N
2631
2427
Earlier Estimation on 5th to 14th Apr
2020 shows Malaysia is doing quite
well based on 2nd MCO with margin
204 individuals on 14th Apr 2020.
14th
2427
New projection is made from
14th to 21st April 2020 for third MCO
Earlier estimation on Ro at 14th Apr 2020 was 0.92, however based on current trajectory;
estimated Ro equals to 0.84
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
21st
1997
N
N
Estimated Projection
•••Actual Cases
Estimated Reproduction Number starting 14 Apr 2020
Estimated Ro at 14th Apr 2020;
Ro = 0.84
Estimated at 21st Apr 2020
0.6
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N

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β(t)  projection  as at 26 Mar - 14 Apr 2020

Actual Cases 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 728 823 940 1061 1157 1345 1425 1577 1793 1876 1973 2047 2110 2186 2218 2299 2453 2511 2596 2490 2579 2567 2553 2446 2462 2499 2464 2427 Estimated Projection 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 728 823 940 1061 1157 1345 1425 1577 1793 1871.2161000000001 1972.6977999999999 2085.7703000000001 2201.5228000000002 2313.1242000000002 2415.4132 2504.638899999999 2578.268999999998 2634.8220000000001 2673.7015999999999 2695.0333000000001 2699.5052000000001 2688.2197999999999 2662.5623999999998 2624.0895 2574.4364999999998 2515.2465000000002 2448.1156000000001 2374.5556999999999

Days Difference 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.7838999999999032 0.30220000000008401 -38.770300000000127 -91.522800000000146 -127.1242000000002 -197.41319999999999 -205.63890000000001 -125.26899999999981 -123.8220000000001 -77.7015999999999 -205.03330000000011 -120.5052000000001 -121.21980000000001 -109.5623999999998 -178.08949999999999 -112.4364999999998 -16.2465000000002 15.884399999999911 52.444300000000098

Projected Ro 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 3.0111500000000002 2.8508200000000001 2.67997 2.502149999999999 2.321419999999998 2.1418900000000001 1.96732 1.80084 1.64472 1.62016 1.6554500000000001 1.6346000000000001 1.57968 1.5056700000000001 1.42241 1.33616 1.25082 1.1687399999999999 1.0912299999999999 1.0189699999999999 0.95218999999999998 0.89085999999999999 0.83477000000000001 0.78363000000000005 0.73709000000000002 0.69479999999999997 0.65639999999999998 0.62155000000000005

The value of  R 0  begins to fall less than ONE (1) on 7 th  Apr 2020.  This shows a positive indication that the pandemic is in control condition with current strategies under the MCO

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Estimation on daily new cases and comparison UKM with MIER:
14th Apr 2020
MIER projection from 23 Mar 2020 until 12 April 2020
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
MIER's Peak
Margin at 4th Apr
2020
Both UKM and MIER show reduction on the
number of newly infected cases perday.
However UKM showed earlier reduction on
29th Mar 2020. The comparison is to show
both projection are in agreement to each
other
273
UKM'speak
margin at 29 Mar
2020 = 123
150
— UKM new projection from 15
Feb 2020 until 21 April 2020
MIER: 12th
Apr 2020.
Margin = 74
227
83
170
UKM: 14th Apr 2020.
With new projection
argin =
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
u
K LBANGSAA
MALAYSIA
N
MIER
••••Actual

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Probable Full Projection with Current Trend Trajectory: Best and Worst
14th Apr 2020
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
15-Feb-20
Probable full projection until Oct 2020
The full projection is based on several assumptions:
I. The trajectory is based on the best and worst possible
gradient at the peak number of active cases.
2. The actual trajectory may or may not follow the best or the
worst case. It depends on the current situation and
assessments.
3. The lines trajectory would be possible under the current
control on MCO and positive public response and reaction
towards the order.
4. The trajectory may be disrupted if at any time the MCO is
loosen or retracted.
5. If everything goes right, the trajectory could end between Jun
2020 to Jul 2020.
"So stay at home, keep social distancing and obey the MCO"
Note: Around these dates the minimal
estimated between 30 to 80.
15-Mar-20
UNIVERSITI
K EBANCkSAA
MALAYSIA
Unives.
of Malaysia
15-0ct-
15-Apr-20
Best Case
15-May-20
Worst Case
15-Jun-20
15-Ju1-20
15-Aug-20
15-Sep-20
MCOI: 18-31 Mac 2020; MC02: 1-14 Apr 2020; MC03: 15-28 Apr 2020
Full Projection As at 140420 •••••ActuaI
Provided by: Ramizi Mohamed (PhD) & Zulkifli Mohd Nopiah (PhD)
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

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Estimation of daily newcases and comparison with MIER
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
MIER's Peak Margin
at 4th Apr 2020 =
305
Both UKM and MIER show
newly infected cases perday.
reduction on 29th Mar 2020.
The comparison is to show
both projection are in
agreement to each other
UKM: 18th Apr 202 .
Margin = 104
N
N
N
N
N
UKM's peak
margin at 29 Mar
2020 = 123
•O—UKM
N
N
N
•O-MIER
N
N
N
N
•••Actual

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Current Infected Cases Vs Fitted
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
Estimation
before rapid test
4-2.6
Actual Cases
Estimation after
rapid test
(r = 50.2
—.—Fitted

Figure:  Current infected cases for China  vs  Estimated curve using  Lavenberg-Marquadt  regression techniques with rapid test parameter (Data fitted until 1 st  Apr 2020).

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Fitted Parameters under the MCO for Malaysia

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3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Probable full projection
Malaysia is currently
following the best
trajectory
The full projection is based on several
assumptions:
1. The trajectory is based on the best and worst
possible gradient at the peak number of active cases.
2. The actual trajectory may or may not follow the best
or the worst case. It depends on the current situation
and assessments.
3. The lines trajectory would be possible under the
current control on MCO and positive public response
and reaction towards the order.
4. The trajectory may be disrupted if at any time the
MCO is loosen or retracted.
Best Case
Worst Case
Full Projection As at 140420
"—Actual

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Probable full projection
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Best Case
Update on 25th Apr 2020
Active Cases = 1882
Worst Case
Full Projection As at 140420
•••••Actual

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1 st  Wave Estimated Full Projection  vs  Actual Active Cases

Best Case 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 43936 43937 43938 43939 43940 43941 43942 43943 43944 43945 43946 43947 43948 43949 43950 43951 43952 43953 43954 43955 43956 43957 43958 43959 43960 43961 43962 43963 43964 43965 43966 43967 43968 43969 43970 43971 43972 43973 43974 43975 43976 43977 43978 43979 43980 43981 43982 43983 43984 43985 43986 43987 43988 43989 43990 43991 43992 43993 43994 43995 43996 43997 43998 43999 44000 44001 44002 44003 44004 44005 44006 44007 44008 44009 44010 44011 44012 728 823 940 1061 1157 1345 1425 1577 1793 1871.2161000000001 1972.6977999999999 2085.7703000000001 2201.5228000000002 2313.1242000000002 2415.4132 2504.638899999999 2578.268999999998 2634.8220000000001 2673.7015999999999 2695.0333000000001 2699.5052000000001 2688.2197999999999 2662.5623999999998 2624.0895 2574.4364999999998 2515.2465000000002 2448.1156000000001 2374.5556999999999 2295.9681 2213.6293000000001 2128.6835999999998 2042.1422 1954.8874000000001 1867.6781000000001 1781.1591000000001 1695.8702000000001 1612.2562 1530.6774 1451.4186 1374.6994 1300.6818000000001 1229.4789000000001 1161.1615999999999 1095.7652 1033.2955999999999 973.73339999999996 917.0394 863.15769999999827 812.01940000000002 763.54570000000001 717.64980000000003 674.23950000000002 633.21879999999999 594.48929999999996 557.95169999999814 523.50659999999937 491.05520000000001 460.50069999999999 431.74770000000001 404.70389999999992 379.2792 355.387 332.9436 311.86880000000002 292.08569999999992 273.52080000000001 256.10399999999993 239.76849999999999 224.45089999999999 210.0909 196.63149999999999 184.01859999999999 172.20099999999999 161.13040000000001 150.7611 141.05000000000001 131.95670000000001 123.4427 115.47199999999999 108.01090000000001 101.0273 94.491299999999995 88.374699999999976 82.6511 77.295500000000004 72.284700000000001 67.596800000000002 63.211200000000012 59.108600000000003 55.270899999999997 51.6813 48.323800000000013 45.183500000000002 42.246600000000001 39.499899999999997 36.931199999999997 34.529000000000003 32.282699999999998 30.182099999999981 28.2178 26.3811 24.663699999999981 23.0579 21.5564 20.1525 Worst Case 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 43936 43937 43938 43939 43940 43941 43942 43943 43944 43945 43946 43947 43948 43949 43950 43951 43952 43953 43954 43955 43956 43957 43958 43959 43960 43961 43962 43963 43964 43965 43966 43967 43968 43969 43970 43971 43972 43973 43974 43975 43976 43977 43978 43979 43980 43981 43982 43983 43984 43985 43986 43987 43988 43989 43990 43991 43992 43993 43994 43995 43996 43997 43998 43999 44000 44001 44002 44003 44004 44005 44006 44007 44008 44009 44010 44011 44012 728 823 940 1061 1157 1345 1425 1577 1793 1876 1973 2047 2110 2186 2218 2299 2453 2511 2596 2609.1583000000001 2623.3218999999999 2636.7937999999999 2647.7136999999998 2654.6386000000002 2656.6923000000002 2653.5016999999998 2645.0601000000001 2631.5934000000002 2613.4544999999998 2591.0513999999998 2564.8036999999999 2535.1185 2502.3793000000001 2466.9423999999999 2429.1372000000001 2389.2676000000001 2347.614 2304.4355999999998 2259.9719 2214.4443999999999 2168.0572000000002 2120.9987000000001 2073.4421000000002 2025.5463 1977.4567999999999 1929.3062 1881.2153000000001 1833.2937999999999 1785.6403 1738.3442 1691.4851000000001 1645.1343999999999 1599.3552 1554.2034000000001 1509.7277999999999 1465.971 1422.9697000000001 1380.7551000000001 1339.3533 1298.7862 1259.0710999999999 1220.2216000000001 1182.248 1145.1570999999999 1108.9529 1073.6369 1039.2081000000001 1005.6635 972.99800000000005 941.20489999999995 910.27589999999998 880.20150000000001 850.97080000000005 822.572 794.99239999999998 768.21839999999997 742.23569999999938 717.02970000000005 692.58489999999995 668.88580000000002 645.91639999999938 623.66039999999998 602.10170000000005 581.22349999999994 561.0095 541.44299999999839 522.50759999999855 504.18680000000001 486.46429999999992 469.32380000000001 452.74950000000001 436.7253999999989 421.23599999999891 406.26580000000001 391.7998 377.82299999999992 364.32089999999999 351.279 338.68349999999992 326.5206 314.7767999999989 303.43900000000002 292.49450000000002 281.93060000000003 271.73529999999892 Normal Case 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 43936 43937 43938 43939 43940 43941 43942 43943 43944 43945 43946 43947 43948 43949 43950 43951 43952 43953 43954 43955 43956 43957 43958 43959 43960 43961 43962 43963 43964 43965 43966 43967 43968 43969 43970 43971 43972 43973 43974 43975 43976 43977 43978 43979 43980 43981 43982 43983 43984 43985 43986 43987 43988 43989 43990 43991 43992 43993 43994 43995 43996 43997 43998 43999 44000 44001 44002 44003 44004 44005 44006 44007 44008 44009 44010 44011 44012 676.94422999999767 791.76507000000004 915.61674000000005 1046.4930899999999 1181.97335 1319.4132500000001 1456.1497400000001 1589.68353 1717.81503 1838.72443 1950.99974 2053.624969999998 2145.94238 2227.60185 2298.506699999999 2358.76224 2408.6300099999999 2448.48893 2478.8032499999999 2500.0966400000002 2512.9314100000001 2517.89201 2515.5720200000001 2506.5639500000002 2491.4512100000002 2470.80206 2445.164969999998 2415.06522 2381.0025300000002 2343.4494599999998 2302.8505399999999 2259.6219000000001 2214.1513199999999 2166.798629999998 2117.8964099999998 2067.750849999999 2016.64274 1964.8286599999999 1912.5421100000001 1859.9948199999999 1807.37797 1754.86346 1702.60517 1650.74019 1599.3899699999999 1548.6615099999999 1498.64842 1449.432 1401.08223 1353.65868 1307.21145 1261.78196 1217.4037699999999 1174.1032600000001 1131.90039 1090.80926 1050.8387399999999 1011.99298 974.27197000000001 937.67195000000004 902.18586000000005 867.80372999999997 834.51302999999996 802.29902000000004 771.14504999999997 741.03278999999998 711.94253999999842 683.85340999999937 656.74355000000003 630.59032999999999 605.37050999999997 581.06037000000003 557.63586999999939 535.07275000000004 513.34665999999754 492.43324000000001 472.3082 452.94740999999999 434.32695000000001 416.42317999999852 399.21278000000001 382.6728 366.78068000000002 351.51432 336.85203999999999 322.77267000000001 309.25554 296.28044999999992 283.82776999999999 271.87835999999891 260.4136199999989 249.41549000000001 238.86643000000001 228.74943999999999 219.04803999999999 209.74627000000001 200.82868999999999 192.28037 184.08686 176.23420999999999 168.70896999999999 161.49812 154.58913999999999 147.96992 141.62881999999999 135.55459999999999 Actual Active Cases 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 43936 43937 43938 43939 43940 43941 43942 43943 43944 43945 43946 43947 43948 43949 43950 43951 43952 43953 43954 43955 43956 43957 43958 43959 43960 43961 43962 43963 43964 43965 43966 43967 43968 43969 43970 43971 43972 43973 43974 43975 43976 43977 43978 43979 43980 43981 43982 43983 43984 43985 43986 43987 43988 43989 43990 43991 43992 43993 43994 43995 43996 43997 43998 43999 44000 44001 44002 44003 44004 44005 44006 44007 44008 44009 44010 44011 44012 728 823 940 1061 1157 1345 1425 1577 1793 1876 1973 2047 2110 2186 2218 2299 2453 2511 2596 2490 2579 2567 2553 2446 2462 2499 2464 2427 2342 2332 2198 2115 2103 2041 2041 1987 1966 1932 1882 1820 1764 1719 1758 1729 1758 1747 1780 1764 1710 1619 1584 1564 1552 1523 1504 1410 1387 1356 1304 1247 1210 1213 1218 1189 1149 1163 1158 1185 1323 1448 1421 1345 1382 1317 1351 1338 1292 1324 1573 1540 1551 1531 1518 1244 1206 1186 1115 1014 986 973 651 521 408 344 289 295 289 283 244 208 191 187 195 182 164

Scene 32

Estimated Full Projection of Reproduction Number
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
Best Case
Worst Case
25th Apr 2020:
- Estimated Ro lies between best and
worst projection.
- 0.40 0.54
Full Projection as at 140420

Scene 33

Remarks:  Figure shows different between confirmed case reported and date onset.  Source - Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Confirmed (34537)
date of onset
date of report
confirmed ("-49971)
• date of or-set
Confirmed (n—5S848)
date
• date of report
date of report

Scene 34

The probable projection with the SEIR model can be achieved with conditions: The government enforcement on MCO (Movement Control Order) and other measures. Early detection and isolation strategy. The cooperation and positive public response of item 1 and 2. R 0  is an indicator of success ( R 0 <1 @  R 0 >1) . All of the above will only be met with PRAYERS and DOA from all of us.  May Allah forgive us and bring back the happiness to us all.

Scene 35

He D,  Dushoff  J, Day T, Ma J, Earn DJ., 2013, Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales.  Proc  R  Soc  B:  Biol  Sc i;280 (1766):20131345. Q. Lin, S Zhao, D  Gao , Y Lou, S Yang, S. S. Musa, M. H. Wang, Y.  Cai , W. Wang, Lin Yang, D He,. 2020, A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action , International Journal of Infectious Diseases.  Vol  93,  pp : 211-216, April 1 2020. Report of the WHO-China joint mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19). 16-24 February 2020 C.  Anastassopoulou , L. Russo, A.  Tsakris  & C.  Siettos , 2020, Data-Based Analysis,  Modelling  and Forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak,  PLoS  ONE , 15(3), March 31 2020,          Imai N, Cori A,  Dorigatti  I,  Baguelin  M, Donnelly CA, Riley S, et al. Report 3: transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. British Medical Journal Publishing Group; 2020 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-  fellowships/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel Coronavirus–infected pneumonia. N  Engl  J Med 2020;.  Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM.  Nowcasting  and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a  modelling  study. Lancet 2020; Available from: http:// www.sciencedirect.com / science/article/ pii /S1201971220300539.     Worldometer  : Corona Virus. Fraser, C., Donnelly, C. A.,  Cauchemez , S.,  Hanage , W. P., Van  Kerkhove , M. D., Hollingsworth, T. D., Griffin, J.,  Baggaley , R. F., Jenkins, H. E., Lyons, E. J.,  Jombart , T.,  Hinsley , W. R.,  Grassly , N. C.,  Balloux , F.,  Ghani , A. C., Ferguson, N. M.,  Rambaut , A.,  Pybus , O. G., Lopez- Gatell , H., … Roth, C. (2009). Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings.  Science ,  324 (5934), 1557–1561.

Scene 36

ICEEComp
G—uting
BEST PAPER AWARD
1
Paper 11): lcc-2021-0034
S-E-I-R Model Solution for Malaysia COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors:
Ramizi Mohamed, Zulkifli Mohd Nopiah, Raja Mendi Raja Ali
2021 4th International Conference on Engineering and Computing
(ICEEComp2021) - Virtual Mode
24-25 April 2021, MALAYSIA
P
o . Ir. Dr. Ismail Musirin
Chair,
ICEEComp2021

RAECAS
BEST PAPER AWARD
Paper In: Rcs-0068
Closed Monitoring of Malaysia COVID-19 Using SEIR Compartmental Model for First Wave Trajew•tory
Authors:
Ramizi Mohamed, Zulkim Mohd Nopiah, Raja Affendi Raja Ali
2020 3rd International Conference on Recent Advances in Engineering,
and Applied Sciences (RAECAS2020) — Virtual Mode
21-22 November 2020, MALAYSIA
P
. r. Dr. Ismail Musirin
Chair, RAECAS2020